This morning at 9 am, Prime Minister Narendra Modi came once again on National Television and made a big decision about repealing three new farm laws which were part of his government's Agriculture Reforms. The decision has received mixed reaction from people. I would like to summarize my analysis on this matter:
There is no doubt that these three farm-laws were made with good intent in mind by our government. These farm laws, including contract farming and the law which allowed farmers to sell their produce to private parties bypassing "Mandi" (which angered the Mandi brokers) were designed in such a manner that these were going to improve farmers' income level. These laws were part of PM Narendra Modi's resolve to double farmer incomes and there is no doubt that these laws passed by our parliament were pro-farmers.
Another clear point is that the Central Govt has not retreated on these laws due to protests. It is true that Left wing affiliated farmer organizations had done massive protests against these farm-laws and this was something which was really surprising because these laws were clearly pro-farmer. But it is also true that these protests happened mainly in one particular geography (in and around Punjab) and farmers from rest of our country had accepted and appreciated these laws. Chief Minisers of many Indian states had officially welcomed these farm laws as well as many economists and experts had appreciated the features of these laws.
The very fact that Central Government was totally unfazed by the farm-protests despite violence, riots and strikes carried by Left Win farmers organizations, proves that Center has now not taken the decision to take back these laws under any external pressure.
Then, of course the question arises about why have government taken back these laws?
My analysis says that Center has done a strategic retreat of farm laws to help BJP win Punjab elections. State govts are still free to make their legislations to get those features which were made at national level. E.g. Maharashtra already has contract farming. Other states can have it too if they want.
So, without harming the economics behind these farm laws, a "political retreat" has been done for electoral benefits.
It is easy to see that now that three Farm Laws have been repealed, way has been cleared for a 3-way alliance between BJP, SAD and Captain Amarinder Singh's party. The SAD (Akali Dal) had left NDA alliance of BJP only because of these farm-bills and now that reason is no longer valid. Captain Amarinder Singh, on the other hand was the popular face of state politics and he also will be able to go to the public with a stronger conviction now, that the main "agenda" of Congress Party has been made to become irrelevant.
Due to these changes, the chances that Congress party will be removed from power in Punjab during next elections are very high.
And remember that BJP can always reintroduce the laws in some shape if it loses or no benefit seen in the upcoming Punjab Elections 2022.
Therefore, I think that the farm-laws reversal is a great political masterstroke by the BJP. We shall watch the political events in next few weeks and months to get it if its impact is seen as intended.
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